Monday, December 11, 2006

New Finds in Earthquake Forecasting

India has seen several devastating earthquakes. Thousands of lives and assets worth thousands of crores have been lost every time an earthquake occurs. For months now, seismologists have been predicting a major earthquake in and around the Country’s Capital. However, when the earthquake does occur, it becomes evident that we were least prepared.
Despite several earthquakes that have killed in thousands, there had been limited effort in the direction of earthquake forecasting. However, things seem to be changing now. The Department of Science and Technology is setting up multi-parametric geophysical observatories at selected locations for monitoring all possible earthquake precursors. The date thus collected would enable Indian scientists to develop earthquake prognostic models for forecasts.
Our own backyard city, Agra interestingly has become a major center of research in this field. Employing a GPS Ionospheric Scintillation and TEC monitor system, the monitoring of total electron content has been started in Bichpuri since June this year. The efforts of Dr. Birbal Singh have received wide appreciation whose novel approach to predicting disasters by analyzing data by regular monitoring of deep-rooted trees, has received international attention.
The pioneering research work done in the field of earthquake forecasting through study of electro-magnetic waves, by the Bichpuri centre of RBS College, has attracted worldwide notice. Following the success of the Bichpuri model established in 1998, the government of India has opened nine more such centres in India. Says Prof. Birbal Singh whose path breaking insights into this crucial field have led to a new understanding of the mystery surrounding earthquakes: “"Our government has recently placed orders for purchase of six more stations from Ukraine. These would be installed at different locations to enable scientists to attempt forecasting of seismological activity.” Prof Singh feels now is the time for a consensus to emerge to evolve a mechanism for continuous exchange of information and advance sharing of alarming signals to contain the devastating effects of natural calamities.
Dr. Harsh Gupta, former secretary Ocean Development and ex-director of Geo-Physical Research Institute, Hyderabad too feels that “more and more people are now accepting the fact that some of the earthquakes and volcanoes can be predicted in advance and preventive measures taken to limit their devastating effects.”
Gupta is of opinion that the science of earthquake prediction has made rapid strides recently. “As a physical phenomenon earthquake must be predictable to a certain degree. We normally analyze and study the trends and effects after a quake, we have now to focus on what can be done to predict accurately any disturbances like earthquakes and volcanoes.”
Ramesh P Singh of the Kanpur IIT is of opinion that “satellites are capable of observing changes on the land, ocean, atmosphere and ionosphere during day and night. The combined ground and satellite approach may be followed in earthquake forecast to avoid any false alarm to the public.”

National Information Centre of Earthquake (NICEE), at IIT- Kanpur, jointly with Urban Earthquake Vulnerability Reduction Programme of UNDP is doing a commendable job regarding unsafe constructions not only by the public and the illiterate masons but also in case of many engineered buildings, which is a major source of problem. The 130 multistoried buildings that collapsed in Ahmedabad, located 220 km away from the epicenter of the earthquake in 2001, clearly illustrate the earthquake problem of India. Another such workshop with the builders, architects and engineers of Kanpur to develop a mutual understanding of the problems and constraints in ensuring safe constructions is scheduled for 14th December at IIT Campus, Kanpur to educate this community on taking adequate preventions.

No comments: