Thursday, January 18, 2007

Is Mulayam losing the won battle?

As the dark clouds of Assembly elections hover over Mulayam Singh Government in UP, the wrestler in him finds it difficult to escape the prospects of president’s rule during hustings.
Beleaguered due to the growing discontent against Samajwadi Party rule, Mulayam Singh is busy with last ditch efforts to retain his chief ministership during forthcoming (April-May) Assembly elections. In his attempt to thwart the danger of president’s rule, he called in the Assembly session from Jan 15. A notification to this effect was issued by Mata Prasad Pandey, the Assembly speaker.
On the other hand, the UP Government Rajeshwar Rao closed the session ‘sine-die’ w.e.f. 9th Jan 2007. This created an unprecedented constitutional crisis in the state of UP.
Why Mulayam Singh and his Samajwadi Party are getting desperate? Opposition parties including BJP and BSP have called upon the governor and the president of India stressing the need to impose president rule. The Congress, BSP and BJP have been citing incidents to show that the administration in UP has ‘collapsed’ and ‘law and order’ has failed.
The dailies in the state carry almost every day the stories about murder, loot, kidnapping, chain snatching, extortion and to top it all the refusal of the police to write FIRs.
The most recent incidents are of the disappearance or murder of Meerut University lecturer Dr. Kavita Chaudhary and serial killings about 20 boys and girls in Nithari (NOIDA). These are the hottest cases, which have been referred to CBI, now, reluctantly by the state government. The resignations of three ministers of Chaudhary Ajit Singh’s LOK DAL (LD) on 9th Jan, from the Mulayam Singh Ministry have sent shivers in the Mulayam Singh camp. Problem has been further aggravated due to Congress’s decision to withdraw support.
The latest Party position in the UP Assembly is as under:

SP 152 CPM 1
BSP 67 others 2
BJP 83 Independents 16
Congress 15 Nominative 1
LBD 33 Unattached 6
LD 15 Vacant 2
KCP 2 Debarred from voting rights 9

Out of total 404 (2 MLA have died) as such the effective strength of the UP Assembly is 393 members. For a majority 197 members are required. 13 independents are either ministers or CMDs of Government corporations. The Congress, LBD, LD, LCP, CPM, were supporting the government till now but the Congress has given a jolt to Mulayam’s plans by announcing withdrawal of support, making it almost inevitable that UP is heading towards President’s rule without Congress and Lok Dal.
Congress and Lok Dal’s decision means that Mulayam Singh will have a wafer thin majority of 204 members. If eight of these, too, withdraw their support, the government could collapse.
In spite of numerical strength at the moment, the imposition of president’s rule in UP appears imminent. The constitution crisis may take a curious turn. The coming days will be eventful.

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